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文本密度财报策略

该因子策略利用公司监管文件中的用词密度来衡量信息含量。我们统计最新财报中独特词汇的比例，密度越高表示披露越详细，可能意味着前景更好；语言稀疏的公司往往表现欠佳。

每个季度，股票按文本密度排序。策略在密度最高的五分位做多，在最低的五分位做空。仓位等权，并在2 月、5 月、8 月和11 月的前三个交易日调整。期间不设止损，直至下一次再平衡。

对美国大盘的回测显示，该因子提供稳定超额收益且换手率适中，可作为多因子组合的基石。

细节

  • 入场条件：季度再平衡，按文本密度排序后多头最高五分位、空头最低五分位
  • 多/空：双向
  • 退出条件：下一次再平衡
  • 止损：无
  • 默认值：
    • Quintile = 5
    • MinTradeUsd = 200
    • CandleType = TimeSpan.FromDays(1)
  • 过滤：
    • 类别：基本面
    • 方向：双向
    • 指标：文本分析
    • 止损：无
    • 复杂度：中等
    • 时间框架：数月
    • 季节性：有
    • 神经网络：无
    • 背离：无
    • 风险级别：中等
using System;
using System.Collections.Generic;

using Ecng.Common;

using StockSharp.Algo.Indicators;
using StockSharp.Algo.Strategies;
using StockSharp.BusinessEntities;
using StockSharp.Configuration;
using StockSharp.Messages;

namespace StockSharp.Samples.Strategies;

/// <summary>
/// Lexical density filings strategy that trades the primary instrument when its synthetic filing-density score diverges from a benchmark.
/// </summary>
public class LexicalDensityFilingsStrategy : Strategy
{
	private readonly StrategyParam<string> _security2Id;
	private readonly StrategyParam<int> _densityLength;
	private readonly StrategyParam<int> _lookbackPeriod;
	private readonly StrategyParam<decimal> _entryThreshold;
	private readonly StrategyParam<decimal> _exitThreshold;
	private readonly StrategyParam<int> _cooldownBars;
	private readonly StrategyParam<decimal> _stopLoss;
	private readonly StrategyParam<DataType> _candleType;

	private Security _benchmark = null!;
	private ExponentialMovingAverage _primaryDensity = null!;
	private ExponentialMovingAverage _benchmarkDensity = null!;
	private SimpleMovingAverage _spreadAverage = null!;
	private StandardDeviation _spreadDeviation = null!;
	private decimal _latestPrimaryDensity;
	private decimal _latestBenchmarkDensity;
	private decimal? _previousZScore;
	private bool _primaryUpdated;
	private bool _benchmarkUpdated;
	private int _cooldownRemaining;

	/// <summary>
	/// Benchmark security identifier.
	/// </summary>
	public string Security2Id
	{
		get => _security2Id.Value;
		set => _security2Id.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Smoothing length for the synthetic lexical density score.
	/// </summary>
	public int DensityLength
	{
		get => _densityLength.Value;
		set => _densityLength.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Lookback period used to normalize the density spread.
	/// </summary>
	public int LookbackPeriod
	{
		get => _lookbackPeriod.Value;
		set => _lookbackPeriod.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Z-score threshold required to open a position.
	/// </summary>
	public decimal EntryThreshold
	{
		get => _entryThreshold.Value;
		set => _entryThreshold.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Z-score threshold required to close a position.
	/// </summary>
	public decimal ExitThreshold
	{
		get => _exitThreshold.Value;
		set => _exitThreshold.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Closed candles to wait before another position change.
	/// </summary>
	public int CooldownBars
	{
		get => _cooldownBars.Value;
		set => _cooldownBars.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Stop loss percentage.
	/// </summary>
	public decimal StopLoss
	{
		get => _stopLoss.Value;
		set => _stopLoss.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Candle type used for analysis.
	/// </summary>
	public DataType CandleType
	{
		get => _candleType.Value;
		set => _candleType.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Initializes a new instance of <see cref="LexicalDensityFilingsStrategy"/>.
	/// </summary>
	public LexicalDensityFilingsStrategy()
	{
		_security2Id = Param(nameof(Security2Id), Paths.HistoryDefaultSecurity2)
			.SetDisplay("Benchmark Security Id", "Identifier of the benchmark security", "General");

		_densityLength = Param(nameof(DensityLength), 10)
			.SetRange(2, 80)
			.SetDisplay("Density Length", "Smoothing length for the synthetic lexical density score", "Indicators");

		_lookbackPeriod = Param(nameof(LookbackPeriod), 24)
			.SetRange(5, 120)
			.SetDisplay("Lookback Period", "Lookback period used to normalize the density spread", "Indicators");

		_entryThreshold = Param(nameof(EntryThreshold), 1.2m)
			.SetRange(0.2m, 5m)
			.SetDisplay("Entry Threshold", "Z-score threshold required to open a position", "Signals");

		_exitThreshold = Param(nameof(ExitThreshold), 0.3m)
			.SetRange(0m, 2m)
			.SetDisplay("Exit Threshold", "Z-score threshold required to close a position", "Signals");

		_cooldownBars = Param(nameof(CooldownBars), 8)
			.SetRange(0, 120)
			.SetDisplay("Cooldown Bars", "Closed candles to wait before another position change", "Risk");

		_stopLoss = Param(nameof(StopLoss), 2.5m)
			.SetRange(0.5m, 10m)
			.SetDisplay("Stop Loss %", "Stop loss percentage", "Risk");

		_candleType = Param(nameof(CandleType), TimeSpan.FromHours(4).TimeFrame())
			.SetDisplay("Candle Type", "Time frame for candles", "General");
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	public override IEnumerable<(Security sec, DataType dt)> GetWorkingSecurities()
	{
		if (Security != null)
			yield return (Security, CandleType);

		if (!Security2Id.IsEmpty())
			yield return (new Security { Id = Security2Id }, CandleType);
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	protected override void OnReseted()
	{
		base.OnReseted();

		_benchmark = null!;
		_primaryDensity = null!;
		_benchmarkDensity = null!;
		_spreadAverage = null!;
		_spreadDeviation = null!;
		_latestPrimaryDensity = 0m;
		_latestBenchmarkDensity = 0m;
		_previousZScore = null;
		_primaryUpdated = false;
		_benchmarkUpdated = false;
		_cooldownRemaining = 0;
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	protected override void OnStarted2(DateTime time)
	{
		base.OnStarted2(time);

		if (Security == null)
			throw new InvalidOperationException("Primary security is not specified.");

		if (Security2Id.IsEmpty())
			throw new InvalidOperationException("Benchmark security identifier is not specified.");

		_benchmark = this.LookupById(Security2Id) ?? new Security { Id = Security2Id };
		_primaryDensity = new ExponentialMovingAverage { Length = DensityLength };
		_benchmarkDensity = new ExponentialMovingAverage { Length = DensityLength };
		_spreadAverage = new SimpleMovingAverage { Length = LookbackPeriod };
		_spreadDeviation = new StandardDeviation { Length = LookbackPeriod };

		var primarySubscription = SubscribeCandles(CandleType, security: Security);
		var benchmarkSubscription = SubscribeCandles(CandleType, security: _benchmark);

		primarySubscription
			.Bind(ProcessPrimaryCandle)
			.Start();

		benchmarkSubscription
			.Bind(ProcessBenchmarkCandle)
			.Start();

		var area = CreateChartArea();
		if (area != null)
		{
			DrawCandles(area, primarySubscription);
			DrawCandles(area, benchmarkSubscription);
			DrawOwnTrades(area);
		}

		StartProtection(
			new Unit(2, UnitTypes.Percent),
			new Unit(StopLoss, UnitTypes.Percent));
	}

	private void ProcessPrimaryCandle(ICandleMessage candle)
	{
		if (candle.State != CandleStates.Finished)
			return;

		_latestPrimaryDensity = UpdateDensity(_primaryDensity, candle);
		_primaryUpdated = true;
		TryProcessSpread(candle.OpenTime);
	}

	private void ProcessBenchmarkCandle(ICandleMessage candle)
	{
		if (candle.State != CandleStates.Finished)
			return;

		_latestBenchmarkDensity = UpdateDensity(_benchmarkDensity, candle);
		_benchmarkUpdated = true;
		TryProcessSpread(candle.OpenTime);
	}

	private decimal UpdateDensity(ExponentialMovingAverage average, ICandleMessage candle)
	{
		var densitySignal = CalculateDensitySignal(candle);
		return average.Process(densitySignal, candle.OpenTime, true).ToDecimal();
	}

	private decimal CalculateDensitySignal(ICandleMessage candle)
	{
		var priceBase = Math.Max(candle.OpenPrice, 1m);
		var range = Math.Max(candle.HighPrice - candle.LowPrice, Security?.PriceStep ?? 1m);
		var closeLocation = ((candle.ClosePrice - candle.LowPrice) - (candle.HighPrice - candle.ClosePrice)) / range;
		var compression = 1m - Math.Min(0.2m, range / priceBase);

		return (closeLocation * 2m) + compression;
	}

	private void TryProcessSpread(DateTime time)
	{
		if (!_primaryUpdated || !_benchmarkUpdated)
			return;

		_primaryUpdated = false;
		_benchmarkUpdated = false;

		var spread = _latestPrimaryDensity - _latestBenchmarkDensity;
		var mean = _spreadAverage.Process(spread, time, true).ToDecimal();
		var deviation = _spreadDeviation.Process(spread, time, true).ToDecimal();

		if (!_spreadAverage.IsFormed || !_spreadDeviation.IsFormed || deviation <= 0m)
			return;

		if (!IsFormedAndOnlineAndAllowTrading())
			return;

		if (_cooldownRemaining > 0)
			_cooldownRemaining--;

		var zScore = (spread - mean) / deviation;
		var bullishEntry = _previousZScore is decimal previousBullish && previousBullish < EntryThreshold && zScore >= EntryThreshold;
		var bearishEntry = _previousZScore is decimal previousBearish && previousBearish > -EntryThreshold && zScore <= -EntryThreshold;

		if (_cooldownRemaining == 0 && Position == 0)
		{
			if (bullishEntry)
			{
				BuyMarket();
				_cooldownRemaining = CooldownBars;
			}
			else if (bearishEntry)
			{
				SellMarket();
				_cooldownRemaining = CooldownBars;
			}
		}
		else if (Position > 0 && zScore <= ExitThreshold)
		{
			SellMarket(Position);
			_cooldownRemaining = CooldownBars;
		}
		else if (Position < 0 && zScore >= -ExitThreshold)
		{
			BuyMarket(Math.Abs(Position));
			_cooldownRemaining = CooldownBars;
		}

		_previousZScore = zScore;
	}
}