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MA Slope Mean Reversion

The MA Slope Mean Reversion strategy focuses on extreme readings of the MA to exploit reversion. Wide departures from the recent level rarely last.

Trades trigger when the indicator swings far from its mean and then begins to reverse. Both long and short setups include a protective stop.

Suited for swing traders expecting oscillations, the strategy closes out once the MA returns toward balance. Starting parameter MaPeriod = 20.

Details

  • Entry Criteria: Indicator crosses back toward mean.
  • Long/Short: Both directions.
  • Exit Criteria: Indicator reverts to average.
  • Stops: Yes.
  • Default Values:
    • MaPeriod = 20
    • SlopeLookback = 20
    • ThresholdMultiplier = 2m
    • StopLossPercent = 2m
    • CandleType = TimeSpan.FromMinutes(5)
  • Filters:
    • Category: Mean Reversion
    • Direction: Both
    • Indicators: MA
    • Stops: Yes
    • Complexity: Intermediate
    • Timeframe: Short-term
    • Seasonality: No
    • Neural Networks: No
    • Divergence: No
    • Risk Level: Medium
using System;
using System.Collections.Generic;

using Ecng.Common;

using StockSharp.Algo.Indicators;
using StockSharp.Algo.Strategies;
using StockSharp.BusinessEntities;
using StockSharp.Messages;

namespace StockSharp.Samples.Strategies;

/// <summary>
/// Moving average slope mean reversion strategy.
/// Trades reversions from extreme moving average slopes and exits when the slope returns to its recent average.
/// </summary>
public class MaSlopeMeanReversionStrategy : Strategy
{
	private readonly StrategyParam<int> _maPeriod;
	private readonly StrategyParam<int> _slopeLookback;
	private readonly StrategyParam<decimal> _thresholdMultiplier;
	private readonly StrategyParam<decimal> _stopLossPercent;
	private readonly StrategyParam<int> _cooldownBars;
	private readonly StrategyParam<DataType> _candleType;

	private SimpleMovingAverage _ma;
	private decimal _previousMaValue;
	private decimal[] _slopeHistory;
	private int _currentIndex;
	private int _filledCount;
	private int _cooldown;
	private bool _isInitialized;

	/// <summary>
	/// Moving average period.
	/// </summary>
	public int MaPeriod
	{
		get => _maPeriod.Value;
		set => _maPeriod.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Period for slope statistics.
	/// </summary>
	public int SlopeLookback
	{
		get => _slopeLookback.Value;
		set => _slopeLookback.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Standard deviation multiplier for entry threshold.
	/// </summary>
	public decimal ThresholdMultiplier
	{
		get => _thresholdMultiplier.Value;
		set => _thresholdMultiplier.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Stop loss percentage.
	/// </summary>
	public decimal StopLossPercent
	{
		get => _stopLossPercent.Value;
		set => _stopLossPercent.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Cooldown bars between orders.
	/// </summary>
	public int CooldownBars
	{
		get => _cooldownBars.Value;
		set => _cooldownBars.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Candle type.
	/// </summary>
	public DataType CandleType
	{
		get => _candleType.Value;
		set => _candleType.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Initializes a new instance of <see cref="MaSlopeMeanReversionStrategy"/>.
	/// </summary>
	public MaSlopeMeanReversionStrategy()
	{
		_maPeriod = Param(nameof(MaPeriod), 20)
			.SetGreaterThanZero()
			.SetDisplay("MA Period", "Moving Average period", "MA Settings")
			.SetOptimize(10, 50, 5);

		_slopeLookback = Param(nameof(SlopeLookback), 20)
			.SetGreaterThanZero()
			.SetDisplay("Slope Lookback", "Period for slope statistics", "Slope Settings")
			.SetOptimize(10, 50, 5);

		_thresholdMultiplier = Param(nameof(ThresholdMultiplier), 1.5m)
			.SetGreaterThanZero()
			.SetDisplay("Threshold Multiplier", "Standard deviation multiplier for entry threshold", "Slope Settings")
			.SetOptimize(1m, 3m, 0.5m);

		_stopLossPercent = Param(nameof(StopLossPercent), 2m)
			.SetGreaterThanZero()
			.SetDisplay("Stop Loss %", "Stop loss as percentage of entry price", "Risk Management");

		_cooldownBars = Param(nameof(CooldownBars), 1200)
			.SetRange(1, 5000)
			.SetDisplay("Cooldown Bars", "Bars to wait between orders", "Risk Management");

		_candleType = Param(nameof(CandleType), TimeSpan.FromMinutes(5).TimeFrame())
			.SetDisplay("Candle Type", "Type of candles to use", "General");
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	public override IEnumerable<(Security sec, DataType dt)> GetWorkingSecurities()
	{
		return [(Security, CandleType)];
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	protected override void OnReseted()
	{
		base.OnReseted();
		_ma = null;
		_previousMaValue = default;
		_slopeHistory = new decimal[SlopeLookback];
		_currentIndex = default;
		_filledCount = default;
		_cooldown = default;
		_isInitialized = default;
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	protected override void OnStarted2(DateTime time)
	{
		base.OnStarted2(time);

		_ma = new SimpleMovingAverage { Length = MaPeriod };
		_slopeHistory = new decimal[SlopeLookback];
		_currentIndex = 0;
		_filledCount = 0;
		_cooldown = 0;

		var subscription = SubscribeCandles(CandleType);
		subscription
			.Bind(_ma, ProcessCandle)
			.Start();

		StartProtection(new(), new Unit(StopLossPercent, UnitTypes.Percent));

		var area = CreateChartArea();
		if (area != null)
		{
			DrawCandles(area, subscription);
			DrawIndicator(area, _ma);
			DrawOwnTrades(area);
		}
	}

	private void ProcessCandle(ICandleMessage candle, decimal maValue)
	{
		if (candle.State != CandleStates.Finished)
			return;

		if (!_ma.IsFormed)
			return;

		if (!_isInitialized)
		{
			_previousMaValue = maValue;
			_isInitialized = true;
			return;
		}

		if (_previousMaValue == 0)
			return;

		var slope = maValue - _previousMaValue;
		_previousMaValue = maValue;

		_slopeHistory[_currentIndex] = slope;
		_currentIndex = (_currentIndex + 1) % SlopeLookback;

		if (_filledCount < SlopeLookback)
			_filledCount++;

		if (_filledCount < SlopeLookback)
			return;

		var averageSlope = 0m;
		var sumSq = 0m;

		for (var i = 0; i < SlopeLookback; i++)
			averageSlope += _slopeHistory[i];

		averageSlope /= SlopeLookback;

		for (var i = 0; i < SlopeLookback; i++)
		{
			var diff = _slopeHistory[i] - averageSlope;
			sumSq += diff * diff;
		}

		var slopeStdDev = (decimal)Math.Sqrt((double)(sumSq / SlopeLookback));

		if (!IsFormedAndOnlineAndAllowTrading())
			return;

		if (_cooldown > 0)
		{
			_cooldown--;
			return;
		}

		var lowerThreshold = averageSlope - ThresholdMultiplier * slopeStdDev;
		var upperThreshold = averageSlope + ThresholdMultiplier * slopeStdDev;

		if (Position == 0)
		{
			if (slope < lowerThreshold)
			{
				BuyMarket();
				_cooldown = CooldownBars;
			}
			else if (slope > upperThreshold)
			{
				SellMarket();
				_cooldown = CooldownBars;
			}
		}
		else if (Position > 0 && slope >= averageSlope)
		{
			SellMarket(Math.Abs(Position));
			_cooldown = CooldownBars;
		}
		else if (Position < 0 && slope <= averageSlope)
		{
			BuyMarket(Math.Abs(Position));
			_cooldown = CooldownBars;
		}
	}
}