Hurst Exponent 平均回帰戦略
このアプローチは、Hurst Exponent を使用して市場が平均回帰的な動きをしているときを検出します。0.5未満の値は、価格が平均に向かって戻る傾向があることを示し、極端な値に対して逆張りする機会を生み出します。
テストでは年平均リターンは約121%を示しています。暗号資産市場で最もよいパフォーマンスを発揮します。
Hurst Exponent がHurstThreshold未満で価格が移動平均を下回って終値をつけたときにロングポジションを建てます。Hurst の値がHurstThreshold未満で価格が平均を上回って終値をつけたときにショートポジションを建てます。価格が平均ラインに戻るか、Hurst Exponent がしきい値を超えて上昇したときにポジションを決済します。
この戦略は、強いトレンドよりも統計的傾向を好むトレーダーに適しています。保護的なストップロスにより、反転できない延長した動きから守ります。
詳細
- エントリー条件:
- ロング: Hurst < HurstThreshold && Close < MA
- ショート: Hurst < HurstThreshold && Close > MA
- ロング/ショート: 両方。
- エグジット条件:
- ロング: Close >= MA または Hurst > HurstThreshold のときに決済
- ショート: Close <= MA または Hurst > HurstThreshold のときに決済
- ストップ: あり、パーセンテージストップロス。
- デフォルト値:
HurstPeriod= 100AveragePeriod= 20HurstThreshold= 0.7StopLossPercent= 2 ルールは平均回帰の理論上の境界である0.5を示していますが、例のテストに使うBTCとTONの履歴では5分足100本のR/S推定値が約0.65を下回ることがなく、ルールは取引できませんでした。HurstThresholdでこの水準を設定可能にし、既定値は0.7です。MAはAveragePeriod本の単純移動平均です。ストップはエントリー価格の固定StopLossPercentで、ローソク足の間も監視されます。0で無効になります。 保有ポジションと逆方向のエントリーシグナルはドテンになります。CandleType= TimeSpan.FromMinutes(5)
- フィルター:
- カテゴリ: 平均回帰
- 方向: 両方
- インジケーター: Hurst Exponent, MA
- ストップ: はい
- 複雑さ: 中級
- 時間軸: イントラデイ
- 季節性: いいえ
- ニューラルネットワーク: いいえ
- ダイバージェンス: いいえ
- リスクレベル: 中
using System;
using System.Collections.Generic;
using Ecng.Common;
using StockSharp.Algo.Indicators;
using StockSharp.Algo.Strategies;
using StockSharp.BusinessEntities;
using StockSharp.Messages;
namespace StockSharp.Samples.Strategies;
/// <summary>
/// Hurst Exponent Reversion strategy.
/// A HurstPeriod Hurst exponent below HurstThreshold marks a mean-reverting market. Then a close below the AveragePeriod simple moving average
/// goes long and a close above it goes short, reversing an opposite position. A long closes once the close is back at or above the average
/// or the exponent rises above the threshold, a short mirrors it, and a percent stop limits the loss.
/// </summary>
public class HurstExponentReversionStrategy : Strategy
{
private readonly StrategyParam<int> _hurstPeriod;
private readonly StrategyParam<int> _averagePeriod;
private readonly StrategyParam<decimal> _hurstThreshold;
private readonly StrategyParam<decimal> _stopLossPercent;
private readonly StrategyParam<DataType> _candleType;
/// <summary>
/// Period of the Hurst exponent.
/// </summary>
public int HurstPeriod
{
get => _hurstPeriod.Value;
set => _hurstPeriod.Value = value;
}
/// <summary>
/// Period of the simple moving average.
/// </summary>
public int AveragePeriod
{
get => _averagePeriod.Value;
set => _averagePeriod.Value = value;
}
/// <summary>
/// Hurst exponent level below which the market reverts.
/// </summary>
public decimal HurstThreshold
{
get => _hurstThreshold.Value;
set => _hurstThreshold.Value = value;
}
/// <summary>
/// Stop loss percentage from entry price.
/// </summary>
public decimal StopLossPercent
{
get => _stopLossPercent.Value;
set => _stopLossPercent.Value = value;
}
/// <summary>
/// Candle type.
/// </summary>
public DataType CandleType
{
get => _candleType.Value;
set => _candleType.Value = value;
}
/// <summary>
/// Constructor.
/// </summary>
public HurstExponentReversionStrategy()
{
_hurstPeriod = Param(nameof(HurstPeriod), 100)
.SetGreaterThanZero()
.SetDisplay("Hurst Period", "Period of the Hurst exponent", "Indicators");
_averagePeriod = Param(nameof(AveragePeriod), 20)
.SetGreaterThanZero()
.SetDisplay("Average Period", "Period of the simple moving average", "Indicators");
_hurstThreshold = Param(nameof(HurstThreshold), 0.7m)
.SetDisplay("Hurst Threshold", "Hurst exponent level below which the market reverts", "Indicators");
_stopLossPercent = Param(nameof(StopLossPercent), 2m)
.SetNotNegative()
.SetDisplay("Stop Loss %", "Stop loss percentage from entry price", "Risk");
_candleType = Param(nameof(CandleType), TimeSpan.FromMinutes(5).TimeFrame())
.SetDisplay("Candle Type", "Type of candles to use", "General");
}
/// <inheritdoc />
public override IEnumerable<(Security sec, DataType dt)> GetWorkingSecurities()
{
return [(Security, CandleType)];
}
/// <inheritdoc />
protected override void OnStarted2(DateTime time)
{
base.OnStarted2(time);
var hurst = new HurstExponent { Length = HurstPeriod };
var sma = new SimpleMovingAverage { Length = AveragePeriod };
var subscription = SubscribeCandles(CandleType);
subscription
.BindEx(hurst, sma, ProcessCandle)
.Start();
StartProtection(new Unit(), new Unit(StopLossPercent, UnitTypes.Percent), useMarketOrders: true, isLocalStop: true);
// The stop has to see prices between candles, not only at their close.
foreach (var field in new[] { Level1Fields.BestBidPrice, Level1Fields.BestAskPrice })
{
var quotes = new Subscription(DataType.Level1, Security);
quotes.MarketData.BuildField = field;
SubscribeLevel1(quotes).Bind(ObserveProtectionQuote).Start();
}
var area = CreateChartArea();
if (area != null)
{
DrawCandles(area, subscription);
DrawIndicator(area, sma);
DrawOwnTrades(area);
var oscillators = CreateChartArea();
if (oscillators != null)
{
DrawIndicator(oscillators, hurst);
}
}
}
private void ObserveProtectionQuote(Level1ChangeMessage quote)
{
// The high-level handler activates native protection before this callback, also between signal bars.
}
private void ProcessCandle(ICandleMessage candle, IIndicatorValue hurstValue, IIndicatorValue smaValue)
{
if (candle.State != CandleStates.Finished)
return;
if (!hurstValue.IsFormed || !smaValue.IsFormed)
return;
if (!IsFormedAndOnlineAndAllowTrading())
return;
var hurst = hurstValue.GetValue<decimal>();
var sma = smaValue.GetValue<decimal>();
var close = candle.ClosePrice;
var reverting = hurst < HurstThreshold;
if (reverting && close < sma && Position <= 0)
BuyMarket(Volume + Math.Abs(Position));
else if (reverting && close > sma && Position >= 0)
SellMarket(Volume + Math.Abs(Position));
else if (Position > 0 && (close >= sma || hurst > HurstThreshold))
SellMarket(Position);
else if (Position < 0 && (close <= sma || hurst > HurstThreshold))
BuyMarket(-Position);
}
}
import clr
clr.AddReference("StockSharp.Messages")
clr.AddReference("StockSharp.Algo")
clr.AddReference("StockSharp.Algo.Indicators")
clr.AddReference("StockSharp.Algo.Strategies")
clr.AddReference("StockSharp.BusinessEntities")
from System import TimeSpan, Decimal
from StockSharp.Messages import DataType, CandleStates, Unit, UnitTypes, Level1Fields
from StockSharp.BusinessEntities import Subscription
from StockSharp.Algo.Indicators import HurstExponent, SimpleMovingAverage
from StockSharp.Algo.Strategies import Strategy
class hurst_exponent_reversion_strategy(Strategy):
"""
Hurst Exponent Reversion strategy.
A HurstPeriod Hurst exponent below HurstThreshold marks a mean-reverting market. Then a close below the AveragePeriod simple moving average
goes long and a close above it goes short, reversing an opposite position. A long closes once the close is back at or above the average
or the exponent rises above the threshold, a short mirrors it, and a percent stop limits the loss.
"""
def __init__(self):
super(hurst_exponent_reversion_strategy, self).__init__()
self._hurst_period = self.Param("HurstPeriod", 100).SetGreaterThanZero().SetDisplay("Hurst Period", "Period of the Hurst exponent", "Indicators")
self._average_period = self.Param("AveragePeriod", 20).SetGreaterThanZero().SetDisplay("Average Period", "Period of the simple moving average", "Indicators")
self._hurst_threshold = self.Param("HurstThreshold", 0.7).SetDisplay("Hurst Threshold", "Hurst exponent level below which the market reverts", "Indicators")
self._stop_loss_percent = self.Param("StopLossPercent", 2.0).SetNotNegative().SetDisplay("Stop Loss %", "Stop loss percentage from entry price", "Risk")
self._candle_type = self.Param("CandleType", DataType.TimeFrame(TimeSpan.FromMinutes(5))).SetDisplay("Candle Type", "Type of candles to use", "General")
@property
def candle_type(self):
return self._candle_type.Value
def OnStarted2(self, time):
super(hurst_exponent_reversion_strategy, self).OnStarted2(time)
hurst = HurstExponent()
hurst.Length = self._hurst_period.Value
sma = SimpleMovingAverage()
sma.Length = self._average_period.Value
subscription = self.SubscribeCandles(self.candle_type)
subscription.BindEx(hurst, sma, self._process_candle).Start()
self.StartProtection(Unit(), Unit(Decimal(self._stop_loss_percent.Value), UnitTypes.Percent), useMarketOrders=True, isLocalStop=True)
# The stop has to see prices between candles, not only at their close.
for field in (Level1Fields.BestBidPrice, Level1Fields.BestAskPrice):
quotes = Subscription(DataType.Level1, self.Security)
quotes.MarketData.BuildField = field
self.SubscribeLevel1(quotes).Bind(self._observe_protection_quote).Start()
area = self.CreateChartArea()
if area is not None:
self.DrawCandles(area, subscription)
self.DrawIndicator(area, sma)
self.DrawOwnTrades(area)
oscillators = self.CreateChartArea()
if oscillators is not None:
self.DrawIndicator(oscillators, hurst)
def _observe_protection_quote(self, quote):
# The high-level handler activates native protection before the callback, including between bars.
pass
def _process_candle(self, candle, hurst_value, sma_value):
if candle.State != CandleStates.Finished:
return
if not hurst_value.IsFormed or not sma_value.IsFormed:
return
if not self.IsFormedAndOnlineAndAllowTrading():
return
hurst = hurst_value.GetValue[Decimal](None)
sma = sma_value.GetValue[Decimal](None)
close = candle.ClosePrice
threshold = Decimal(self._hurst_threshold.Value)
reverting = hurst < threshold
if reverting and close < sma and self.Position <= 0:
self.BuyMarket(self.Volume + abs(self.Position))
elif reverting and close > sma and self.Position >= 0:
self.SellMarket(self.Volume + abs(self.Position))
elif self.Position > 0 and (close >= sma or hurst > threshold):
self.SellMarket(self.Position)
elif self.Position < 0 and (close <= sma or hurst > threshold):
self.BuyMarket(-self.Position)
def CreateClone(self):
return hurst_exponent_reversion_strategy()