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Hull MA Volatility Contraction

The Hull MA Volatility Contraction strategy is built around Hull Moving Average with volatility contraction filter.

Testing indicates an average annual return of about 76%. It performs best in the forex market.

Signals trigger when its indicators confirms volatility contraction patterns on intraday (15m) data. This makes the method suitable for active traders.

Stops rely on ATR multiples and factors like HmaPeriod, AtrPeriod. Adjust these defaults to balance risk and reward.

Details

  • Entry Criteria: see implementation for indicator conditions.
  • Long/Short: Both directions.
  • Exit Criteria: opposite signal or stop logic.
  • Stops: Yes, using indicator-based calculations.
  • Default Values:
    • HmaPeriod = 9
    • AtrPeriod = 14
    • VolatilityContractionFactor = 2.0m
    • CandleType = TimeSpan.FromMinutes(15).TimeFrame()
  • Filters:
    • Category: Trend following
    • Direction: Both
    • Indicators: multiple indicators
    • Stops: Yes
    • Complexity: Intermediate
    • Timeframe: Intraday (15m)
    • Seasonality: No
    • Neural Networks: No
    • Divergence: No
    • Risk Level: Medium
using System;
using System.Linq;
using System.Collections.Generic;

using Ecng.Common;
using Ecng.Collections;
using Ecng.Serialization;

using StockSharp.Algo.Indicators;
using StockSharp.Algo.Strategies;
using StockSharp.BusinessEntities;
using StockSharp.Messages;

namespace StockSharp.Samples.Strategies;

/// <summary>
/// Strategy based on Hull Moving Average with volatility contraction filter.
/// </summary>
public class HullMaVolatilityContractionStrategy : Strategy
{
	private readonly StrategyParam<int> _hmaPeriod;
	private readonly StrategyParam<int> _atrPeriod;
	private readonly StrategyParam<decimal> _volatilityContractionFactor;
	private readonly StrategyParam<DataType> _candleType;

	private HullMovingAverage _hma;
	private AverageTrueRange _atr;

	// Store values for analysis
	private readonly SynchronizedList<decimal> _atrValues = [];
	private decimal _prevHmaValue;
	private decimal _currentHmaValue;
	private bool _isLongPosition;
	private bool _isShortPosition;

	/// <summary>
	/// Hull Moving Average period.
	/// </summary>
	public int HmaPeriod
	{
		get => _hmaPeriod.Value;
		set => _hmaPeriod.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Average True Range period for volatility calculation.
	/// </summary>
	public int AtrPeriod
	{
		get => _atrPeriod.Value;
		set => _atrPeriod.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Volatility contraction factor (standard deviation multiplier).
	/// </summary>
	public decimal VolatilityContractionFactor
	{
		get => _volatilityContractionFactor.Value;
		set => _volatilityContractionFactor.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Candle type to use for the strategy.
	/// </summary>
	public DataType CandleType
	{
		get => _candleType.Value;
		set => _candleType.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Initializes a new instance of the <see cref="HullMaVolatilityContractionStrategy"/>.
	/// </summary>
	public HullMaVolatilityContractionStrategy()
	{
		_hmaPeriod = Param(nameof(HmaPeriod), 9)
		.SetDisplay("Hull MA Period", "Hull Moving Average period", "Hull MA")
		
		.SetOptimize(5, 20, 1);

		_atrPeriod = Param(nameof(AtrPeriod), 14)
		.SetDisplay("ATR Period", "Period for ATR volatility calculation", "Volatility")
		
		.SetOptimize(10, 30, 2);

		_volatilityContractionFactor = Param(nameof(VolatilityContractionFactor), 2.0m)
		.SetDisplay("Volatility Contraction Factor", "Standard deviation multiplier for volatility contraction", "Volatility")
		
		.SetOptimize(1.0m, 3.0m, 0.5m);

		_candleType = Param(nameof(CandleType), TimeSpan.FromMinutes(15).TimeFrame())
		.SetDisplay("Candle Type", "Type of candles to use", "General");
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	public override IEnumerable<(Security sec, DataType dt)> GetWorkingSecurities()
	{
		return [(Security, CandleType)];
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	protected override void OnReseted()
	{
		base.OnReseted();

		_prevHmaValue = default;
		_currentHmaValue = default;
		_isLongPosition = false;
		_isShortPosition = false;
		_atrValues.Clear();
		_hma = null;
		_atr = null;
	}

	protected override void OnStarted2(DateTime time)
	{
		base.OnStarted2(time);

		// Create indicators
		_hma = new HullMovingAverage
		{
			Length = HmaPeriod
		};

		_atr = new AverageTrueRange
		{
			Length = AtrPeriod
		};

		// Create subscription and bind indicators
		var subscription = SubscribeCandles(CandleType);

		subscription
		.Bind(_hma, _atr, ProcessCandle)
		.Start();

		// Setup chart visualization if available
		var area = CreateChartArea();
		if (area != null)
		{
			DrawCandles(area, subscription);
			DrawIndicator(area, _hma);
			DrawIndicator(area, _atr);
			DrawOwnTrades(area);
		}

		// Setup position protection
		StartProtection(
		new Unit(2, UnitTypes.Percent), 
		new Unit(2, UnitTypes.Percent)
		);
	}

	private void ProcessCandle(ICandleMessage candle, decimal hmaValue, decimal atrValue)
	{
		// Skip unfinished candles
		if (candle.State != CandleStates.Finished)
		return;

		// Save previous HMA value
		_prevHmaValue = _currentHmaValue;

		// Extract values from indicators
		_currentHmaValue = hmaValue;
		decimal atr = atrValue;

		// Store ATR values for volatility analysis
		_atrValues.Add(atr);

		// Keep only needed history
		while (_atrValues.Count > AtrPeriod * 2)
		_atrValues.RemoveAt(0);

		// Check for volatility contraction
		bool isVolatilityContracted = IsVolatilityContracted();

		// Determine HMA trend direction
		bool isHmaRising = _currentHmaValue > _prevHmaValue;
		bool isHmaFalling = _currentHmaValue < _prevHmaValue;

		if (!IsFormedAndOnlineAndAllowTrading())
		return;

		// Log current status
		if (_atrValues.Count >= AtrPeriod)
		{
			decimal avgAtr = _atrValues.Skip(Math.Max(0, _atrValues.Count - AtrPeriod)).Average();
			LogInfo($"HMA: {_currentHmaValue:F2} (Prev: {_prevHmaValue:F2}), ATR: {atr:F2}, Avg ATR: {avgAtr:F2}, Volatility Contracted: {isVolatilityContracted}");
		}

		// Trading logic
		// Buy when HMA is rising and volatility is contracted
		if (isHmaRising && isVolatilityContracted && Position <= 0)
		{
			BuyMarket(Volume);
			LogInfo($"Buy Signal: HMA Rising ({_prevHmaValue:F2} -> {_currentHmaValue:F2}) with Contracted Volatility");
			_isLongPosition = true;
			_isShortPosition = false;
		}
		// Sell when HMA is falling and volatility is contracted
		else if (isHmaFalling && isVolatilityContracted && Position >= 0)
		{
			SellMarket(Volume + Math.Abs(Position));
			LogInfo($"Sell Signal: HMA Falling ({_prevHmaValue:F2} -> {_currentHmaValue:F2}) with Contracted Volatility");
			_isLongPosition = false;
			_isShortPosition = true;
		}
		// Exit long position when HMA starts falling
		else if (_isLongPosition && isHmaFalling)
		{
			SellMarket(Position);
			LogInfo($"Exit Long: HMA started falling ({_prevHmaValue:F2} -> {_currentHmaValue:F2})");
			_isLongPosition = false;
		}
		// Exit short position when HMA starts rising
		else if (_isShortPosition && isHmaRising)
		{
			BuyMarket(Math.Abs(Position));
			LogInfo($"Exit Short: HMA started rising ({_prevHmaValue:F2} -> {_currentHmaValue:F2})");
			_isShortPosition = false;
		}
	}

	private bool IsVolatilityContracted()
	{
		// Need enough ATR values for calculation
		if (_atrValues.Count < AtrPeriod)
		return false;

		// Get recent ATR values for analysis
		var recentAtrValues = _atrValues.Skip(Math.Max(0, _atrValues.Count - AtrPeriod)).ToList();

		// Calculate mean and standard deviation
		decimal mean = recentAtrValues.Average();
		decimal sumSquaredDifferences = recentAtrValues.Sum(x => (x - mean) * (x - mean));
		decimal standardDeviation = (decimal)Math.Sqrt((double)(sumSquaredDifferences / recentAtrValues.Count));

		// Get current ATR (latest)
		decimal currentAtr = _atrValues.Last();

		// Check if current ATR is less than mean minus standard deviation * factor
		bool isContracted = currentAtr < (mean - standardDeviation * VolatilityContractionFactor);

		// Log details if contraction is detected
		if (isContracted)
		{
			LogInfo($"Volatility Contraction Detected: Current ATR {currentAtr:F2} < Mean {mean:F2} - (StdDev {standardDeviation:F2} * Factor {VolatilityContractionFactor})");
		}

		return isContracted;
	}
}