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Estratégia de Hull MA Volatility Contraction

A estratégia Hull MA Volatility Contraction é construída em torno da Média Móvel Hull com filtro de contração de volatilidade.

Os testes indicam um retorno anual médio de aproximadamente 76%. Tem melhor desempenho no mercado de câmbio.

Os sinais são ativados quando os indicadores confirmam padrões de contração de volatilidade em dados intradiários (15m). Este método é adequado para traders ativos.

Os stops dependem de múltiplos do ATR e fatores como HmaPeriod, AtrPeriod. Ajuste esses valores padrão para equilibrar risco e retorno.

Detalhes

  • Critérios de entrada: ver implementação para condições de indicadores.
  • Comprado/Vendido: Ambos os lados.
  • Critérios de saída: sinal oposto ou lógica de stop.
  • Stops: Sim, usando cálculos baseados em indicadores.
  • Valores padrão:
    • HmaPeriod = 9
    • AtrPeriod = 14
    • VolatilityContractionFactor = 2.0m
    • CandleType = TimeSpan.FromMinutes(15).TimeFrame()
  • Filtros:
    • Categoria: Seguidor de tendência
    • Direção: Ambos
    • Indicadores: múltiplos indicadores
    • Stops: Sim
    • Complexidade: Intermediário
    • Período: Intradiário (15m)
    • Sazonalidade: Não
    • Redes neurais: Não
    • Divergência: Não
    • Nível de risco: Médio
using System;
using System.Linq;
using System.Collections.Generic;

using Ecng.Common;
using Ecng.Collections;
using Ecng.Serialization;

using StockSharp.Algo.Indicators;
using StockSharp.Algo.Strategies;
using StockSharp.BusinessEntities;
using StockSharp.Messages;

namespace StockSharp.Samples.Strategies;

/// <summary>
/// Strategy based on Hull Moving Average with volatility contraction filter.
/// </summary>
public class HullMaVolatilityContractionStrategy : Strategy
{
	private readonly StrategyParam<int> _hmaPeriod;
	private readonly StrategyParam<int> _atrPeriod;
	private readonly StrategyParam<decimal> _volatilityContractionFactor;
	private readonly StrategyParam<DataType> _candleType;

	private HullMovingAverage _hma;
	private AverageTrueRange _atr;

	// Store values for analysis
	private readonly SynchronizedList<decimal> _atrValues = [];
	private decimal _prevHmaValue;
	private decimal _currentHmaValue;
	private bool _isLongPosition;
	private bool _isShortPosition;

	/// <summary>
	/// Hull Moving Average period.
	/// </summary>
	public int HmaPeriod
	{
		get => _hmaPeriod.Value;
		set => _hmaPeriod.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Average True Range period for volatility calculation.
	/// </summary>
	public int AtrPeriod
	{
		get => _atrPeriod.Value;
		set => _atrPeriod.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Volatility contraction factor (standard deviation multiplier).
	/// </summary>
	public decimal VolatilityContractionFactor
	{
		get => _volatilityContractionFactor.Value;
		set => _volatilityContractionFactor.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Candle type to use for the strategy.
	/// </summary>
	public DataType CandleType
	{
		get => _candleType.Value;
		set => _candleType.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Initializes a new instance of the <see cref="HullMaVolatilityContractionStrategy"/>.
	/// </summary>
	public HullMaVolatilityContractionStrategy()
	{
		_hmaPeriod = Param(nameof(HmaPeriod), 9)
		.SetDisplay("Hull MA Period", "Hull Moving Average period", "Hull MA")
		
		.SetOptimize(5, 20, 1);

		_atrPeriod = Param(nameof(AtrPeriod), 14)
		.SetDisplay("ATR Period", "Period for ATR volatility calculation", "Volatility")
		
		.SetOptimize(10, 30, 2);

		_volatilityContractionFactor = Param(nameof(VolatilityContractionFactor), 2.0m)
		.SetDisplay("Volatility Contraction Factor", "Standard deviation multiplier for volatility contraction", "Volatility")
		
		.SetOptimize(1.0m, 3.0m, 0.5m);

		_candleType = Param(nameof(CandleType), TimeSpan.FromMinutes(15).TimeFrame())
		.SetDisplay("Candle Type", "Type of candles to use", "General");
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	public override IEnumerable<(Security sec, DataType dt)> GetWorkingSecurities()
	{
		return [(Security, CandleType)];
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	protected override void OnReseted()
	{
		base.OnReseted();

		_prevHmaValue = default;
		_currentHmaValue = default;
		_isLongPosition = false;
		_isShortPosition = false;
		_atrValues.Clear();
		_hma = null;
		_atr = null;
	}

	protected override void OnStarted2(DateTime time)
	{
		base.OnStarted2(time);

		// Create indicators
		_hma = new HullMovingAverage
		{
			Length = HmaPeriod
		};

		_atr = new AverageTrueRange
		{
			Length = AtrPeriod
		};

		// Create subscription and bind indicators
		var subscription = SubscribeCandles(CandleType);

		subscription
		.Bind(_hma, _atr, ProcessCandle)
		.Start();

		// Setup chart visualization if available
		var area = CreateChartArea();
		if (area != null)
		{
			DrawCandles(area, subscription);
			DrawIndicator(area, _hma);
			DrawIndicator(area, _atr);
			DrawOwnTrades(area);
		}

		// Setup position protection
		StartProtection(
		new Unit(2, UnitTypes.Percent), 
		new Unit(2, UnitTypes.Percent)
		);
	}

	private void ProcessCandle(ICandleMessage candle, decimal hmaValue, decimal atrValue)
	{
		// Skip unfinished candles
		if (candle.State != CandleStates.Finished)
		return;

		// Save previous HMA value
		_prevHmaValue = _currentHmaValue;

		// Extract values from indicators
		_currentHmaValue = hmaValue;
		decimal atr = atrValue;

		// Store ATR values for volatility analysis
		_atrValues.Add(atr);

		// Keep only needed history
		while (_atrValues.Count > AtrPeriod * 2)
		_atrValues.RemoveAt(0);

		// Check for volatility contraction
		bool isVolatilityContracted = IsVolatilityContracted();

		// Determine HMA trend direction
		bool isHmaRising = _currentHmaValue > _prevHmaValue;
		bool isHmaFalling = _currentHmaValue < _prevHmaValue;

		if (!IsFormedAndOnlineAndAllowTrading())
		return;

		// Log current status
		if (_atrValues.Count >= AtrPeriod)
		{
			decimal avgAtr = _atrValues.Skip(Math.Max(0, _atrValues.Count - AtrPeriod)).Average();
			LogInfo($"HMA: {_currentHmaValue:F2} (Prev: {_prevHmaValue:F2}), ATR: {atr:F2}, Avg ATR: {avgAtr:F2}, Volatility Contracted: {isVolatilityContracted}");
		}

		// Trading logic
		// Buy when HMA is rising and volatility is contracted
		if (isHmaRising && isVolatilityContracted && Position <= 0)
		{
			BuyMarket(Volume);
			LogInfo($"Buy Signal: HMA Rising ({_prevHmaValue:F2} -> {_currentHmaValue:F2}) with Contracted Volatility");
			_isLongPosition = true;
			_isShortPosition = false;
		}
		// Sell when HMA is falling and volatility is contracted
		else if (isHmaFalling && isVolatilityContracted && Position >= 0)
		{
			SellMarket(Volume + Math.Abs(Position));
			LogInfo($"Sell Signal: HMA Falling ({_prevHmaValue:F2} -> {_currentHmaValue:F2}) with Contracted Volatility");
			_isLongPosition = false;
			_isShortPosition = true;
		}
		// Exit long position when HMA starts falling
		else if (_isLongPosition && isHmaFalling)
		{
			SellMarket(Position);
			LogInfo($"Exit Long: HMA started falling ({_prevHmaValue:F2} -> {_currentHmaValue:F2})");
			_isLongPosition = false;
		}
		// Exit short position when HMA starts rising
		else if (_isShortPosition && isHmaRising)
		{
			BuyMarket(Math.Abs(Position));
			LogInfo($"Exit Short: HMA started rising ({_prevHmaValue:F2} -> {_currentHmaValue:F2})");
			_isShortPosition = false;
		}
	}

	private bool IsVolatilityContracted()
	{
		// Need enough ATR values for calculation
		if (_atrValues.Count < AtrPeriod)
		return false;

		// Get recent ATR values for analysis
		var recentAtrValues = _atrValues.Skip(Math.Max(0, _atrValues.Count - AtrPeriod)).ToList();

		// Calculate mean and standard deviation
		decimal mean = recentAtrValues.Average();
		decimal sumSquaredDifferences = recentAtrValues.Sum(x => (x - mean) * (x - mean));
		decimal standardDeviation = (decimal)Math.Sqrt((double)(sumSquaredDifferences / recentAtrValues.Count));

		// Get current ATR (latest)
		decimal currentAtr = _atrValues.Last();

		// Check if current ATR is less than mean minus standard deviation * factor
		bool isContracted = currentAtr < (mean - standardDeviation * VolatilityContractionFactor);

		// Log details if contraction is detected
		if (isContracted)
		{
			LogInfo($"Volatility Contraction Detected: Current ATR {currentAtr:F2} < Mean {mean:F2} - (StdDev {standardDeviation:F2} * Factor {VolatilityContractionFactor})");
		}

		return isContracted;
	}
}