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Estratégia de Reversão à Média com CCI

O Commodity Channel Index (CCI) mede o quanto o preço se afasta de sua média estatística. Esta estratégia entra quando o CCI se desvia de sua própria média por uma grande margem, esperando um retorno rápido assim que o momentum diminui.

Os testes indicam um retorno anual médio de aproximadamente 151%. Funciona melhor no mercado de ações.

Uma operação comprada ocorre quando o CCI cai abaixo da média menos DeviationMultiplier vezes o desvio padrão. Uma operação vendida é aberta quando o CCI sobe acima da média mais esse multiplicador. A posição é fechada quando o CCI cruza de volta pelo valor médio.

Este sistema é adequado para traders de curto prazo que preferem configurações contrárias. Um stop-loss baseado em movimento percentual ajuda a limitar o risco se o mercado não conseguir reverter rapidamente.

Detalhes

  • Critérios de entrada:
    • Comprado: CCI < Avg - DeviationMultiplier * StdDev
    • Vendido: CCI > Avg + DeviationMultiplier * StdDev
  • Comprado/Vendido: Ambos os lados.
  • Critérios de saída:
    • Comprado: Sair quando CCI > Avg
    • Vendido: Sair quando CCI < Avg
  • Stops: Sim, stop-loss percentual.
  • Valores padrão:
    • CciPeriod = 20
    • AveragePeriod = 20
    • DeviationMultiplier = 2m
    • CandleType = TimeSpan.FromMinutes(5)
  • Filtros:
    • Categoria: Mean reversion
    • Direção: Ambos
    • Indicadores: CCI
    • Stops: Sim
    • Complexidade: Intermediário
    • Período: Intradiário
    • Sazonalidade: Não
    • Redes neurais: Não
    • Divergência: Não
    • Nível de risco: Médio
namespace StockSharp.Samples.Strategies;

using System;
using System.Collections.Generic;

using Ecng.Common;

using StockSharp.Algo;
using StockSharp.Algo.Candles;
using StockSharp.Algo.Indicators;
using StockSharp.Algo.Strategies;
using StockSharp.BusinessEntities;
using StockSharp.Messages;

/// <summary>
/// CCI Mean Reversion strategy.
/// This strategy enters positions when CCI is significantly below or above its average value.
/// </summary>
public class CciMeanReversionStrategy : Strategy
{
	private readonly StrategyParam<int> _cciPeriod;
	private readonly StrategyParam<int> _averagePeriod;
	private readonly StrategyParam<decimal> _deviationMultiplier;
	private readonly StrategyParam<DataType> _candleType;
	private readonly StrategyParam<decimal> _stopLossPercent;

	private decimal _prevCci;
	private decimal _avgCci;
	private decimal _stdDevCci;
	private decimal _sumCci;
	private decimal _sumSquaresCci;
	private int _count;
	private readonly Queue<decimal> _cciValues = [];

	/// <summary>
	/// CCI Period.
	/// </summary>
	public int CciPeriod
	{
		get => _cciPeriod.Value;
		set => _cciPeriod.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Period for calculating mean and standard deviation of CCI.
	/// </summary>
	public int AveragePeriod
	{
		get => _averagePeriod.Value;
		set => _averagePeriod.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Deviation multiplier for entry signals.
	/// </summary>
	public decimal DeviationMultiplier
	{
		get => _deviationMultiplier.Value;
		set => _deviationMultiplier.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Candle type.
	/// </summary>
	public DataType CandleType
	{
		get => _candleType.Value;
		set => _candleType.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Stop-loss percentage.
	/// </summary>
	public decimal StopLossPercent
	{
		get => _stopLossPercent.Value;
		set => _stopLossPercent.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Constructor.
	/// </summary>
	public CciMeanReversionStrategy()
	{
		_cciPeriod = Param(nameof(CciPeriod), 20)
			.SetGreaterThanZero()
			
			.SetOptimize(10, 30, 5)
			.SetDisplay("CCI Period", "Period for Commodity Channel Index", "Indicators");

		_averagePeriod = Param(nameof(AveragePeriod), 20)
			.SetGreaterThanZero()
			
			.SetOptimize(10, 50, 10)
			.SetDisplay("Average Period", "Period for calculating CCI average and standard deviation", "Settings");

		_deviationMultiplier = Param(nameof(DeviationMultiplier), 2m)
			.SetGreaterThanZero()
			
			.SetOptimize(1.5m, 3m, 0.5m)
			.SetDisplay("Deviation Multiplier", "Multiplier for standard deviation", "Settings");

		_candleType = Param(nameof(CandleType), TimeSpan.FromMinutes(5).TimeFrame())
			.SetDisplay("Candle Type", "Type of candles to use", "General");

		_stopLossPercent = Param(nameof(StopLossPercent), 2m)
			.SetGreaterThanZero()
			
			.SetOptimize(1m, 3m, 0.5m)
			.SetDisplay("Stop Loss %", "Stop loss as percentage of entry price", "Risk Management");
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	public override IEnumerable<(Security sec, DataType dt)> GetWorkingSecurities()
	{
		return [(Security, CandleType)];
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	protected override void OnReseted()
	{
		base.OnReseted();
		_prevCci = 0;
		_avgCci = 0;
		_stdDevCci = 0;
		_sumCci = 0;
		_sumSquaresCci = 0;
		_count = 0;
		_cciValues.Clear();
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	protected override void OnStarted2(DateTime time)
	{
		// Reset variables

		// Create CCI indicator
		var cci = new CommodityChannelIndex { Length = CciPeriod };

		// Create subscription and bind indicator
		var subscription = SubscribeCandles(CandleType);
		subscription
			.BindEx(cci, ProcessCandle)
			.Start();

		// Setup chart visualization
		var area = CreateChartArea();
		if (area != null)
		{
			DrawCandles(area, subscription);
			DrawIndicator(area, cci);
			DrawOwnTrades(area);
		}

		// Enable position protection
		StartProtection(
			takeProfit: new Unit(0m), // We'll manage exits ourselves based on CCI
			stopLoss: new Unit(StopLossPercent, UnitTypes.Percent)
		);

		base.OnStarted2(time);
	}

	private void ProcessCandle(ICandleMessage candle, IIndicatorValue cciValue)
	{
		// Skip unfinished candles
		if (candle.State != CandleStates.Finished)
			return;

		// Check if strategy is ready to trade
		if (!IsFormedAndOnlineAndAllowTrading())
			return;

		// Extract CCI value
		var currentCci = cciValue.ToDecimal();

		// Update CCI statistics
		UpdateCciStatistics(currentCci);

		// Save current CCI for next iteration
		_prevCci = currentCci;

		// If we don't have enough data yet for statistics
		if (_count < AveragePeriod)
			return;

		// Check for entry conditions
		if (Position == 0)
		{
			// Long entry - CCI is significantly below its average
			if (currentCci < _avgCci - DeviationMultiplier * _stdDevCci)
			{
				BuyMarket(Volume);
				LogInfo($"Long entry: CCI = {currentCci}, CCI Avg = {_avgCci}, CCI StdDev = {_stdDevCci}");
			}
			// Short entry - CCI is significantly above its average
			else if (currentCci > _avgCci + DeviationMultiplier * _stdDevCci)
			{
				SellMarket(Volume);
				LogInfo($"Short entry: CCI = {currentCci}, CCI Avg = {_avgCci}, CCI StdDev = {_stdDevCci}");
			}
		}
		// Check for exit conditions
		else if (Position > 0) // Long position
		{
			if (currentCci > _avgCci)
			{
				ClosePosition();
				LogInfo($"Long exit: CCI = {currentCci}, CCI Avg = {_avgCci}");
			}
		}
		else if (Position < 0) // Short position
		{
			if (currentCci < _avgCci)
			{
				ClosePosition();
				LogInfo($"Short exit: CCI = {currentCci}, CCI Avg = {_avgCci}");
			}
		}
	}

	private void UpdateCciStatistics(decimal currentCci)
	{
		// Add current value to the queue
		_cciValues.Enqueue(currentCci);
		_sumCci += currentCci;
		_sumSquaresCci += currentCci * currentCci;
		_count++;

		// If queue is larger than period, remove oldest value
		if (_cciValues.Count > AveragePeriod)
		{
			var oldestCci = _cciValues.Dequeue();
			_sumCci -= oldestCci;
			_sumSquaresCci -= oldestCci * oldestCci;
			_count--;
		}

		// Calculate average and standard deviation
		if (_count > 0)
		{
			_avgCci = _sumCci / _count;
			
			if (_count > 1)
			{
				var variance = (_sumSquaresCci - (_sumCci * _sumCci) / _count) / (_count - 1);
				_stdDevCci = variance <= 0 ? 0 : (decimal)Math.Sqrt((double)variance);
			}
			else
			{
				_stdDevCci = 0;
			}
		}
	}
}