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Estratégia de Momentum de Fundos Mútuos

Esta estratégia rotaciona trimestralmente entre um conjunto de fundos mútuos. No final de cada trimestre, os fundos são classificados pelo desempenho dos últimos seis meses. O capital é alocado no fundo líder para o próximo trimestre, permitindo que investidores de longo prazo sigam o momentum persistente em produtos de gestão ativa.

Apenas um fundo é mantido de cada vez. São utilizados dados de preço diários e o rebalanceamento ocorre durante os primeiros três dias de negociação de janeiro, abril, julho e outubro.

Detalhes

  • Universo: lista de fundos mútuos.
  • Sinal: classificação pelo retorno total de 126 dias (seis meses).
  • Rebalanceamento: trimestral nos primeiros dias de negociação do novo trimestre.
  • Posicionamento: totalmente comprado no fundo de maior classificação.
  • Controle de risco: ignorar negociação quando o valor da ordem estiver abaixo de MinTradeUsd.
using System;
using System.Collections.Generic;

using Ecng.Common;

using StockSharp.Algo.Indicators;
using StockSharp.Algo.Strategies;
using StockSharp.BusinessEntities;
using StockSharp.Configuration;
using StockSharp.Messages;

namespace StockSharp.Samples.Strategies;

/// <summary>
/// Mutual fund momentum strategy that trades the primary instrument when its medium-term momentum leadership diverges from a benchmark fund.
/// </summary>
public class MutualFundMomentumStrategy : Strategy
{
	private readonly StrategyParam<string> _security2Id;
	private readonly StrategyParam<int> _momentumPeriod;
	private readonly StrategyParam<int> _trendPeriod;
	private readonly StrategyParam<int> _normalizationPeriod;
	private readonly StrategyParam<decimal> _entryThreshold;
	private readonly StrategyParam<decimal> _exitThreshold;
	private readonly StrategyParam<int> _cooldownBars;
	private readonly StrategyParam<decimal> _stopLoss;
	private readonly StrategyParam<DataType> _candleType;

	private Security _benchmark = null!;
	private RateOfChange _primaryMomentum = null!;
	private RateOfChange _benchmarkMomentum = null!;
	private ExponentialMovingAverage _primaryTrend = null!;
	private SimpleMovingAverage _spreadAverage = null!;
	private StandardDeviation _spreadDeviation = null!;
	private decimal _latestPrimaryMomentum;
	private decimal _latestBenchmarkMomentum;
	private decimal _latestPrimaryTrend;
	private decimal? _previousZScore;
	private bool _primaryUpdated;
	private bool _benchmarkUpdated;
	private int _cooldownRemaining;

	/// <summary>
	/// Benchmark fund identifier.
	/// </summary>
	public string Security2Id
	{
		get => _security2Id.Value;
		set => _security2Id.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Momentum lookback period.
	/// </summary>
	public int MomentumPeriod
	{
		get => _momentumPeriod.Value;
		set => _momentumPeriod.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Trend period used to align entries with the primary fund direction.
	/// </summary>
	public int TrendPeriod
	{
		get => _trendPeriod.Value;
		set => _trendPeriod.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Lookback period used to normalize the momentum leadership spread.
	/// </summary>
	public int NormalizationPeriod
	{
		get => _normalizationPeriod.Value;
		set => _normalizationPeriod.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Z-score threshold required to open a position.
	/// </summary>
	public decimal EntryThreshold
	{
		get => _entryThreshold.Value;
		set => _entryThreshold.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Z-score threshold required to close a position.
	/// </summary>
	public decimal ExitThreshold
	{
		get => _exitThreshold.Value;
		set => _exitThreshold.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Closed candles to wait before another position change.
	/// </summary>
	public int CooldownBars
	{
		get => _cooldownBars.Value;
		set => _cooldownBars.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Stop loss percentage.
	/// </summary>
	public decimal StopLoss
	{
		get => _stopLoss.Value;
		set => _stopLoss.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Candle type used for calculations.
	/// </summary>
	public DataType CandleType
	{
		get => _candleType.Value;
		set => _candleType.Value = value;
	}

	public MutualFundMomentumStrategy()
	{
		_security2Id = Param(nameof(Security2Id), Paths.HistoryDefaultSecurity2)
			.SetDisplay("Benchmark Security Id", "Identifier of the benchmark fund", "General");

		_momentumPeriod = Param(nameof(MomentumPeriod), 32)
			.SetRange(5, 200)
			.SetDisplay("Momentum Period", "Momentum lookback period", "Indicators");

		_trendPeriod = Param(nameof(TrendPeriod), 20)
			.SetRange(5, 200)
			.SetDisplay("Trend Period", "Trend period used to align entries with the primary fund direction", "Indicators");

		_normalizationPeriod = Param(nameof(NormalizationPeriod), 24)
			.SetRange(5, 120)
			.SetDisplay("Normalization Period", "Lookback period used to normalize the momentum leadership spread", "Indicators");

		_entryThreshold = Param(nameof(EntryThreshold), 1m)
			.SetRange(0.2m, 5m)
			.SetDisplay("Entry Threshold", "Z-score threshold required to open a position", "Signals");

		_exitThreshold = Param(nameof(ExitThreshold), 0.2m)
			.SetRange(0m, 2m)
			.SetDisplay("Exit Threshold", "Z-score threshold required to close a position", "Signals");

		_cooldownBars = Param(nameof(CooldownBars), 10)
			.SetRange(0, 120)
			.SetDisplay("Cooldown Bars", "Closed candles to wait before another position change", "Risk");

		_stopLoss = Param(nameof(StopLoss), 3m)
			.SetRange(0.5m, 10m)
			.SetDisplay("Stop Loss %", "Stop loss percentage", "Risk");

		_candleType = Param(nameof(CandleType), TimeSpan.FromHours(4).TimeFrame())
			.SetDisplay("Candle Type", "Time frame for candles", "General");
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	public override IEnumerable<(Security sec, DataType dt)> GetWorkingSecurities()
	{
		if (Security != null)
			yield return (Security, CandleType);

		if (!Security2Id.IsEmpty())
			yield return (new Security { Id = Security2Id }, CandleType);
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	protected override void OnReseted()
	{
		base.OnReseted();

		_benchmark = null!;
		_primaryMomentum = null!;
		_benchmarkMomentum = null!;
		_primaryTrend = null!;
		_spreadAverage = null!;
		_spreadDeviation = null!;
		_latestPrimaryMomentum = 0m;
		_latestBenchmarkMomentum = 0m;
		_latestPrimaryTrend = 0m;
		_previousZScore = null;
		_primaryUpdated = false;
		_benchmarkUpdated = false;
		_cooldownRemaining = 0;
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	protected override void OnStarted2(DateTime time)
	{
		base.OnStarted2(time);

		if (Security == null)
			throw new InvalidOperationException("Primary security is not specified.");

		if (Security2Id.IsEmpty())
			throw new InvalidOperationException("Benchmark security identifier is not specified.");

		_benchmark = this.LookupById(Security2Id) ?? new Security { Id = Security2Id };
		_primaryMomentum = new RateOfChange { Length = MomentumPeriod };
		_benchmarkMomentum = new RateOfChange { Length = MomentumPeriod };
		_primaryTrend = new ExponentialMovingAverage { Length = TrendPeriod };
		_spreadAverage = new SimpleMovingAverage { Length = NormalizationPeriod };
		_spreadDeviation = new StandardDeviation { Length = NormalizationPeriod };

		var primarySubscription = SubscribeCandles(CandleType, security: Security);
		var benchmarkSubscription = SubscribeCandles(CandleType, security: _benchmark);

		primarySubscription
			.Bind(ProcessPrimaryCandle)
			.Start();

		benchmarkSubscription
			.Bind(ProcessBenchmarkCandle)
			.Start();

		var area = CreateChartArea();
		if (area != null)
		{
			DrawCandles(area, primarySubscription);
			DrawCandles(area, benchmarkSubscription);
			DrawOwnTrades(area);
		}

		StartProtection(
			new Unit(2, UnitTypes.Percent),
			new Unit(StopLoss, UnitTypes.Percent));
	}

	private void ProcessPrimaryCandle(ICandleMessage candle)
	{
		if (candle.State != CandleStates.Finished)
			return;

		var momentumValue = _primaryMomentum.Process(candle);
		var trendValue = _primaryTrend.Process(candle);

		if (momentumValue.IsEmpty || trendValue.IsEmpty || !_primaryMomentum.IsFormed || !_primaryTrend.IsFormed)
			return;

		_latestPrimaryMomentum = momentumValue.ToDecimal();
		_latestPrimaryTrend = trendValue.ToDecimal();
		_primaryUpdated = true;
		TryProcessSpread(candle);
	}

	private void ProcessBenchmarkCandle(ICandleMessage candle)
	{
		if (candle.State != CandleStates.Finished)
			return;

		var momentumValue = _benchmarkMomentum.Process(candle);
		if (momentumValue.IsEmpty || !_benchmarkMomentum.IsFormed)
			return;

		_latestBenchmarkMomentum = momentumValue.ToDecimal();
		_benchmarkUpdated = true;
		TryProcessSpread(candle);
	}

	private void TryProcessSpread(ICandleMessage candle)
	{
		if (!_primaryUpdated || !_benchmarkUpdated)
			return;

		_primaryUpdated = false;
		_benchmarkUpdated = false;

		var spread = _latestPrimaryMomentum - _latestBenchmarkMomentum;
		var mean = _spreadAverage.Process(spread, candle.OpenTime, true).ToDecimal();
		var deviation = _spreadDeviation.Process(spread, candle.OpenTime, true).ToDecimal();

		if (!_spreadAverage.IsFormed || !_spreadDeviation.IsFormed || deviation <= 0m)
			return;

		if (!IsFormedAndOnlineAndAllowTrading())
			return;

		if (_cooldownRemaining > 0)
			_cooldownRemaining--;

		var zScore = (spread - mean) / deviation;
		var bullishEntry = _previousZScore is decimal previousBullish &&
			previousBullish < EntryThreshold &&
			candle.ClosePrice >= _latestPrimaryTrend &&
			zScore >= EntryThreshold;

		var bearishEntry = _previousZScore is decimal previousBearish &&
			previousBearish > -EntryThreshold &&
			candle.ClosePrice <= _latestPrimaryTrend &&
			zScore <= -EntryThreshold;

		if (_cooldownRemaining == 0 && Position == 0)
		{
			if (bullishEntry)
			{
				BuyMarket();
				_cooldownRemaining = CooldownBars;
			}
			else if (bearishEntry)
			{
				SellMarket();
				_cooldownRemaining = CooldownBars;
			}
		}
		else if (Position > 0 && zScore <= ExitThreshold)
		{
			SellMarket(Position);
			_cooldownRemaining = CooldownBars;
		}
		else if (Position < 0 && zScore >= -ExitThreshold)
		{
			BuyMarket(Math.Abs(Position));
			_cooldownRemaining = CooldownBars;
		}

		_previousZScore = zScore;
	}
}