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Month of Year Effect Strategy

The Month of Year Effect captures performance differences observed in various months. For example, equities often rally in November and December but can be weak during September.

Testing indicates an average annual return of about 88%. It performs best in the stocks market.

The system goes long or short at the beginning of each month based on those historical averages, exiting by month-end.

Stops are used to protect capital if the usual seasonal behavior fails to appear.

Details

  • Entry Criteria: calendar effect triggers
  • Long/Short: Both
  • Exit Criteria: stop-loss or opposite signal
  • Stops: Yes, percent based
  • Default Values:
    • CandleType = 15 minute
    • StopLoss = 2%
  • Filters:
    • Category: Seasonality
    • Direction: Both
    • Indicators: Seasonality
    • Stops: Yes
    • Complexity: Intermediate
    • Timeframe: Intraday
    • Seasonality: Yes
    • Neural networks: No
    • Divergence: No
    • Risk level: Medium
using System;
using System.Collections.Generic;

using Ecng.Common;

using StockSharp.Algo.Indicators;
using StockSharp.Algo.Strategies;
using StockSharp.BusinessEntities;
using StockSharp.Messages;

namespace StockSharp.Samples.Strategies;

/// <summary>
/// Month of Year seasonal trading strategy.
/// Enters long in historically strong months (Nov-Jan) and short in weak months (Feb, May, Sep).
/// Uses MA trend filter and cooldown between trades.
/// </summary>
public class MonthOfYearStrategy : Strategy
{
	private readonly StrategyParam<DataType> _candleType;
	private readonly StrategyParam<int> _maPeriod;
	private readonly StrategyParam<int> _cooldownBars;

	private SimpleMovingAverage _ma;

	private decimal _prevMa;
	private decimal _prevClose;
	private int _lastTradeMonth;
	private int _lastTradeHalf;
	private int _cooldown;

	/// <summary>
	/// Candle type.
	/// </summary>
	public DataType CandleType
	{
		get => _candleType.Value;
		set => _candleType.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// MA period.
	/// </summary>
	public int MaPeriod
	{
		get => _maPeriod.Value;
		set => _maPeriod.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Cooldown bars.
	/// </summary>
	public int CooldownBars
	{
		get => _cooldownBars.Value;
		set => _cooldownBars.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Constructor.
	/// </summary>
	public MonthOfYearStrategy()
	{
		_candleType = Param(nameof(CandleType), TimeSpan.FromMinutes(5).TimeFrame())
			.SetDisplay("Candle Type", "Candle timeframe", "General");

		_maPeriod = Param(nameof(MaPeriod), 20)
			.SetDisplay("MA Period", "SMA period", "Indicators")
			.SetRange(10, 50);

		_cooldownBars = Param(nameof(CooldownBars), 100)
			.SetDisplay("Cooldown Bars", "Bars between trades", "General")
			.SetRange(10, 2000);
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	public override IEnumerable<(Security sec, DataType dt)> GetWorkingSecurities()
	{
		return [(Security, CandleType)];
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	protected override void OnReseted()
	{
		base.OnReseted();
		_ma = default;
		_prevMa = 0;
		_prevClose = 0;
		_lastTradeMonth = 0;
		_lastTradeHalf = 0;
		_cooldown = 0;
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	protected override void OnStarted2(DateTime time)
	{
		base.OnStarted2(time);

		_ma = new SimpleMovingAverage { Length = MaPeriod };

		var subscription = SubscribeCandles(CandleType);
		subscription
			.Bind(_ma, ProcessCandle)
			.Start();

		var area = CreateChartArea();
		if (area != null)
		{
			DrawCandles(area, subscription);
			DrawIndicator(area, _ma);
			DrawOwnTrades(area);
		}
	}

	private void ProcessCandle(ICandleMessage candle, decimal ma)
	{
		if (candle.State != CandleStates.Finished)
			return;

		if (!IsFormedAndOnlineAndAllowTrading())
			return;

		var close = candle.ClosePrice;
		var month = candle.OpenTime.Month;
		var half = candle.OpenTime.Day <= 15 ? 1 : 2;

		if (_cooldown > 0)
		{
			_cooldown--;
			_prevMa = ma;
			_prevClose = close;
			return;
		}

		// Exit logic: MA cross
		if (Position > 0 && close < ma && _prevMa > 0 && _prevClose >= _prevMa)
		{
			SellMarket();
			_cooldown = CooldownBars;
			_lastTradeMonth = month;
			_lastTradeHalf = half;
		}
		else if (Position < 0 && close > ma && _prevMa > 0 && _prevClose <= _prevMa)
		{
			BuyMarket();
			_cooldown = CooldownBars;
			_lastTradeMonth = month;
			_lastTradeHalf = half;
		}

		// Entry logic: seasonal month-half based
		if (Position == 0 && (month != _lastTradeMonth || half != _lastTradeHalf))
		{
			// First half of month: buy if above MA
			if (half == 1 && close > ma)
			{
				BuyMarket();
				_cooldown = CooldownBars;
				_lastTradeMonth = month;
				_lastTradeHalf = half;
			}
			// Second half of month: sell if below MA
			else if (half == 2 && close < ma)
			{
				SellMarket();
				_cooldown = CooldownBars;
				_lastTradeMonth = month;
				_lastTradeHalf = half;
			}
		}

		_prevMa = ma;
		_prevClose = close;
	}
}