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Estrategia Pairs

Esta estrategia de pairs trading monitorea el spread de precios entre dos instrumentos correlacionados. Al comparar el spread con su media histórica y desviación estándar, el sistema intenta explotar divergencias temporales que eventualmente revertirán.

Las pruebas indican un rendimiento anual promedio de aproximadamente 88%. Funciona mejor en el mercado de acciones.

Se entra en un spread largo cuando el spread cae por debajo de su media más del multiplicador de desviación especificado. Esto significa comprar el primer activo y vender el segundo. Un spread corto hace lo opuesto cuando el spread sube por encima de la media en la misma cantidad. Las posiciones se cierran una vez que el spread regresa al nivel promedio.

El pairs trading atrae a traders neutrales al mercado que prefieren oportunidades de valor relativo en lugar de dirección pura. Debido a que ambos lados están cubiertos, la volatilidad tiende a ser menor, aunque la estrategia sigue utilizando un stop-loss sobre el spread para gestionar el riesgo.

Detalles

  • Criterios de entrada:
    • Largo: Spread < Mean - Multiplier * StdDev
    • Corto: Spread > Mean + Multiplier * StdDev
  • Largo/Corto: Ambos lados.
  • Criterios de salida:
    • Largo: Salir cuando el spread revierte a la media
    • Corto: Salir cuando el spread revierte a la media
  • Stops: Sí, stop porcentual basado en el valor del spread.
  • Valores predeterminados:
    • LookbackPeriod = 20
    • DeviationMultiplier = 2
    • StopLossPercent = 2
    • CandleType = TimeSpan.FromMinutes(5)
    • SecondSecurity — obligatorio, sin valor por defecto El spread es el cierre del Security de la estrategia menos el cierre de SecondSecurity en velas de la misma hora; Mean y StdDev se calculan sobre los últimos LookbackPeriod spreads. Cada pata opera Volume y una señal contraria invierte ambas patas. El stop cierra ambas patas cuando el spread se mueve en contra un StopLossPercent de su valor de entrada, comprobado al cierre de las velas; 0 lo desactiva.
  • Filtros:
    • Categoría: Arbitraje
    • Dirección: Ambos
    • Indicadores: Spread statistics
    • Stops: Sí
    • Complejidad: Intermedio
    • Marco temporal: Intradía
    • Estacionalidad: No
    • Redes neuronales: No
    • Divergencia: Sí
    • Nivel de riesgo: Medio
using System;
using System.Collections.Generic;
using System.Linq;

using Ecng.Common;

using StockSharp.Algo.Strategies;
using StockSharp.BusinessEntities;
using StockSharp.Messages;

namespace StockSharp.Samples.Strategies;

/// <summary>
/// Pairs trading strategy.
/// The spread is the first instrument's close minus the second's on candles of the same time. A spread more than DeviationMultiplier
/// standard deviations below the mean of the last LookbackPeriod spreads buys the first instrument and sells the second, one more than
/// that above it does the opposite, reversing an opposite pair. Both legs close once the spread returns to the mean, or once it moves
/// StopLossPercent of its entry value against the pair.
/// </summary>
public class PairsTradingStrategy : Strategy
{
	private readonly StrategyParam<int> _lookbackPeriod;
	private readonly StrategyParam<decimal> _deviationMultiplier;
	private readonly StrategyParam<decimal> _stopLossPercent;
	private readonly StrategyParam<DataType> _candleType;
	private readonly StrategyParam<Security> _secondSecurity;

	private readonly Dictionary<DateTime, decimal> _firstCloses = [];
	private readonly Dictionary<DateTime, decimal> _secondCloses = [];
	private readonly Queue<decimal> _spreads = [];
	// 1 while long the spread, -1 while short it, 0 while flat.
	private int _side;
	private decimal _entrySpread;

	/// <summary>
	/// Number of spreads the mean and standard deviation are measured over.
	/// </summary>
	public int LookbackPeriod
	{
		get => _lookbackPeriod.Value;
		set => _lookbackPeriod.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Standard deviations between the mean and an entry level.
	/// </summary>
	public decimal DeviationMultiplier
	{
		get => _deviationMultiplier.Value;
		set => _deviationMultiplier.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Adverse spread move, in percent of the entry spread, that closes the pair.
	/// </summary>
	public decimal StopLossPercent
	{
		get => _stopLossPercent.Value;
		set => _stopLossPercent.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Candle type.
	/// </summary>
	public DataType CandleType
	{
		get => _candleType.Value;
		set => _candleType.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Second security in the pair.
	/// </summary>
	public Security SecondSecurity
	{
		get => _secondSecurity.Value;
		set => _secondSecurity.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Constructor.
	/// </summary>
	public PairsTradingStrategy()
	{
		_lookbackPeriod = Param(nameof(LookbackPeriod), 20)
			.SetGreaterThanZero()
			.SetDisplay("Lookback Period", "Spreads the mean and standard deviation are measured over", "Parameters");

		_deviationMultiplier = Param(nameof(DeviationMultiplier), 2m)
			.SetGreaterThanZero()
			.SetDisplay("Deviation Multiplier", "Standard deviations between the mean and an entry level", "Parameters");

		_stopLossPercent = Param(nameof(StopLossPercent), 2m)
			.SetNotNegative()
			.SetDisplay("Stop-loss %", "Adverse spread move in percent of the entry spread", "Risk Management");

		_candleType = Param(nameof(CandleType), TimeSpan.FromMinutes(5).TimeFrame())
			.SetDisplay("Candle Type", "Type of candles to use", "General");

		_secondSecurity = Param<Security>(nameof(SecondSecurity))
			.SetDisplay("Second Security", "Second security in the pair", "General")
			.SetRequired();
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	public override IEnumerable<(Security sec, DataType dt)> GetWorkingSecurities()
	{
		return [(Security, CandleType), (SecondSecurity, CandleType)];
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	protected override void OnReseted()
	{
		base.OnReseted();
		ResetState();
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	protected override void OnStarted2(DateTime time)
	{
		base.OnStarted2(time);

		if (SecondSecurity == null)
			throw new InvalidOperationException("Second security is not specified.");

		ResetState();

		var firstSubscription = SubscribeCandles(CandleType);
		firstSubscription.Bind(candle => ProcessCandle(candle, _firstCloses)).Start();

		var secondSubscription = SubscribeCandles(CandleType, security: SecondSecurity);
		secondSubscription.Bind(candle => ProcessCandle(candle, _secondCloses)).Start();

		var area = CreateChartArea();
		if (area != null)
		{
			DrawCandles(area, firstSubscription);
			DrawOwnTrades(area);
		}
	}

	private void ResetState()
	{
		_firstCloses.Clear();
		_secondCloses.Clear();
		_spreads.Clear();
		_side = 0;
		_entrySpread = 0;
	}

	private void ProcessCandle(ICandleMessage candle, Dictionary<DateTime, decimal> closes)
	{
		if (candle.State != CandleStates.Finished)
			return;

		closes[candle.OpenTime] = candle.ClosePrice;

		// The spread needs both instruments' candles of the same time, whichever arrives last.
		if (!_firstCloses.TryGetValue(candle.OpenTime, out var first) || !_secondCloses.TryGetValue(candle.OpenTime, out var second))
			return;

		foreach (var stale in _firstCloses.Keys.Where(t => t <= candle.OpenTime).ToArray())
			_firstCloses.Remove(stale);

		foreach (var stale in _secondCloses.Keys.Where(t => t <= candle.OpenTime).ToArray())
			_secondCloses.Remove(stale);

		var spread = first - second;

		_spreads.Enqueue(spread);

		if (_spreads.Count > LookbackPeriod)
			_spreads.Dequeue();

		if (_spreads.Count < LookbackPeriod)
			return;

		var mean = _spreads.Average();
		var deviation = (decimal)Math.Sqrt((double)_spreads.Average(s => (s - mean) * (s - mean)));
		var upper = mean + DeviationMultiplier * deviation;
		var lower = mean - DeviationMultiplier * deviation;

		if (!IsFormedAndOnlineAndAllowTrading())
			return;

		var stopDistance = Math.Abs(_entrySpread) * StopLossPercent / 100;

		if (spread < lower && _side <= 0)
		{
			MoveLegs(1);
			_entrySpread = spread;
		}
		else if (spread > upper && _side >= 0)
		{
			MoveLegs(-1);
			_entrySpread = spread;
		}
		else if (_side > 0 && (spread >= mean || (StopLossPercent > 0 && spread <= _entrySpread - stopDistance)))
		{
			MoveLegs(0);
		}
		else if (_side < 0 && (spread <= mean || (StopLossPercent > 0 && spread >= _entrySpread + stopDistance)))
		{
			MoveLegs(0);
		}
	}

	private void MoveLegs(int side)
	{
		_side = side;

		// Long the spread holds the first instrument and is short the second, each by Volume.
		var firstChange = side * Volume - Position;

		if (firstChange > 0)
			BuyMarket(firstChange);
		else if (firstChange < 0)
			SellMarket(-firstChange);

		var secondChange = -side * Volume - (GetPositionValue(SecondSecurity, Portfolio) ?? 0m);

		if (secondChange > 0)
			BuyMarket(secondChange, SecondSecurity);
		else if (secondChange < 0)
			SellMarket(-secondChange, SecondSecurity);
	}
}