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Machine Learning Logistische Regression Strategie

Diese Strategie trainiert bei jedem Bar ein einfaches logistisches Regressionsmodell neu. Das Modell verwendet aktuelle Schlusskurse und eine daraus abgeleitete synthetische Reihe. Wenn die vorhergesagte Wachstumswahrscheinlichkeit über 0.5 liegt, eröffnet die Strategie eine Long-Position; andernfalls geht sie Short. Positionen werden für eine feste Anzahl von Bars gehalten.

Details

  • Einstieg: Vorhersage > 0.5 → Long, sonst Short.
  • Ausstieg: Gegensätzliches Signal oder Halteperiode erreicht.
  • Long/Short: Beide.
  • Zeitrahmen: Konfigurierbar, Standard 1 Minute.
using System;
using System.Linq;
using System.Collections.Generic;

using Ecng.Common;
using Ecng.Collections;
using Ecng.Serialization;

using StockSharp.Algo.Indicators;
using StockSharp.Algo.Strategies;
using StockSharp.BusinessEntities;
using StockSharp.Messages;

namespace StockSharp.Samples.Strategies;

/// <summary>
/// Logistic regression based strategy.
/// Retrains a simple model on each finished candle and trades by prediction.
/// </summary>
public class MachineLearningLogisticRegressionStrategy : Strategy
{
	private readonly StrategyParam<int> _lookback;
	private readonly StrategyParam<decimal> _learningRate;
	private readonly StrategyParam<int> _iterations;
	private readonly StrategyParam<int> _holdingPeriod;
	private readonly StrategyParam<DataType> _candleType;

	private decimal[] _baseSeries = Array.Empty<decimal>();
	private decimal[] _synthSeries = Array.Empty<decimal>();
	private int _filled;
	private int _signal;
	private int _hpCounter;
	private bool _isInitialized;

	/// <summary>
	/// Training window size.
	/// </summary>
	public int Lookback
	{
		get => _lookback.Value;
		set => _lookback.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Learning rate for gradient descent.
	/// </summary>
	public decimal LearningRate
	{
		get => _learningRate.Value;
		set => _learningRate.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Number of training iterations.
	/// </summary>
	public int Iterations
	{
		get => _iterations.Value;
		set => _iterations.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Bars to hold position before exit.
	/// </summary>
	public int HoldingPeriod
	{
		get => _holdingPeriod.Value;
		set => _holdingPeriod.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Type of candles used by the strategy.
	/// </summary>
	public DataType CandleType
	{
		get => _candleType.Value;
		set => _candleType.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Initializes a new instance of the strategy.
	/// </summary>
	public MachineLearningLogisticRegressionStrategy()
	{
		_lookback = Param(nameof(Lookback), 3)
			.SetGreaterThanZero()
			.SetDisplay("Lookback", "Number of bars for training", "General")
			
			.SetOptimize(2, 10, 1);

		_learningRate = Param(nameof(LearningRate), 0.0009m)
			.SetGreaterThanZero()
			.SetDisplay("Learning Rate", "Gradient descent step", "General")
			
			.SetOptimize(0.0001m, 0.01m, 0.0001m);

		_iterations = Param(nameof(Iterations), 1000)
			.SetGreaterThanZero()
			.SetDisplay("Iterations", "Training iterations", "General")
			
			.SetOptimize(50, 5000, 50);

		_holdingPeriod = Param(nameof(HoldingPeriod), 5)
			.SetGreaterThanZero()
			.SetDisplay("Holding Period", "Bars to hold position", "General")
			
			.SetOptimize(1, 20, 1);

		_candleType = Param(nameof(CandleType), TimeSpan.FromMinutes(1).TimeFrame())
			.SetDisplay("Candle Type", "Type of candles to use", "General");

		_baseSeries = new decimal[Lookback];
		_synthSeries = new decimal[Lookback];
		_filled = 0;
		_signal = 0;
		_hpCounter = 0;
		_isInitialized = false;
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	public override IEnumerable<(Security sec, DataType dt)> GetWorkingSecurities()
	{
		return [(Security, CandleType)];
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	protected override void OnReseted()
	{
		base.OnReseted();

		_baseSeries = new decimal[Lookback];
		_synthSeries = new decimal[Lookback];
		_filled = 0;
		_signal = 0;
		_hpCounter = 0;
		_isInitialized = false;
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	protected override void OnStarted2(DateTime time)
	{
		base.OnStarted2(time);

		_baseSeries = new decimal[Lookback];
		_synthSeries = new decimal[Lookback];
		_filled = 0;
		_signal = 0;
		_hpCounter = 0;
		_isInitialized = false;

		var subscription = SubscribeCandles(CandleType);
		subscription.Bind(ProcessCandle).Start();

		var area = CreateChartArea();
		if (area != null)
		{
			DrawCandles(area, subscription);
			DrawOwnTrades(area);
		}
	}

	private void ProcessCandle(ICandleMessage candle)
	{
		if (candle.State != CandleStates.Finished)
			return;

		Shift(_baseSeries, candle.ClosePrice);
		var synthetic = (decimal)Math.Log(Math.Abs(Math.Pow((double)candle.ClosePrice, 2) - 1) + 0.5);
		Shift(_synthSeries, synthetic);

		if (_filled < Lookback)
		{
			_filled++;
			return;
		}

		if (!_isInitialized)
		{
			_isInitialized = true;
			return;
		}

		// Bootstrap first direction once model buffers are initialized.
		if (_signal == 0)
		{
			_signal = candle.ClosePrice >= _baseSeries[^2] ? 1 : -1;
			_hpCounter = 0;

			if (_signal == 1 && Position <= 0)
				BuyMarket(Volume + Math.Abs(Position));
			else if (_signal == -1 && Position >= 0)
				SellMarket(Volume + Math.Abs(Position));

			return;
		}

		var prediction = RunLogisticRegression(_baseSeries, _synthSeries, Lookback, LearningRate, Iterations);

		var newSignal = prediction > 0.5m ? 1 : -1;

		if (newSignal != _signal)
		{
			_hpCounter = 0;
			if (newSignal == 1 && Position <= 0)
				BuyMarket(Volume + Math.Abs(Position));
			else if (newSignal == -1 && Position >= 0)
				SellMarket(Volume + Math.Abs(Position));
		}
		else
		{
			_hpCounter++;
			if (_signal == 1 && _hpCounter >= HoldingPeriod && Position > 0)
				SellMarket(Position);
			else if (_signal == -1 && _hpCounter >= HoldingPeriod && Position < 0)
				BuyMarket(-Position);
		}

		_signal = newSignal;
	}

	private static void Shift(decimal[] buffer, decimal value)
	{
		for (var i = 0; i < buffer.Length - 1; i++)
			buffer[i] = buffer[i + 1];

		buffer[^1] = value;
	}

	private static decimal RunLogisticRegression(decimal[] x, decimal[] y, int p, decimal lr, int iterations)
	{
		var w = 0m;

		for (var i = 0; i < iterations; i++)
		{
			var gradient = 0m;

			for (var j = 0; j < p; j++)
			{
				var z = w * x[j];
				var h = Sigmoid(z);
				gradient += (h - y[j]) * x[j];
			}

			gradient /= p;
			w -= lr * gradient;
		}

		var prediction = Sigmoid(w * x[^1]);
		return prediction;
	}

	private static decimal Sigmoid(decimal z)
	{
		var exp = (decimal)Math.Exp((double)(-z));
		return 1m / (1m + exp);
	}
}