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Low Volatility Reversion

This mean-reversion strategy activates only during quiet markets. It measures ATR over a lookback window and enters when volatility falls below a percentage of that average and price deviates from its moving average.

Testing indicates an average annual return of about 139%. It performs best in the stocks market.

By trading against small moves in calm conditions, it aims to capture snap backs without chasing large trends.

Positions exit once price touches the moving average or the ATR-based stop-loss is reached.

Details

  • Entry Criteria: Price away from moving average while ATR is below threshold.
  • Long/Short: Both directions.
  • Exit Criteria: Price returns to MA or stop triggers.
  • Stops: Yes.
  • Default Values:
    • MAPeriod = 20
    • AtrPeriod = 14
    • AtrLookbackPeriod = 20
    • AtrThresholdPercent = 50m
    • AtrMultiplier = 2.0m
    • CandleType = TimeSpan.FromMinutes(5)
  • Filters:
    • Category: Mean Reversion
    • Direction: Both
    • Indicators: ATR, MA
    • Stops: Yes
    • Complexity: Intermediate
    • Timeframe: Intraday
    • Seasonality: No
    • Neural Networks: No
    • Divergence: No
    • Risk Level: Medium
using System;
using System.Collections.Generic;

using Ecng.Common;

using StockSharp.Algo.Indicators;
using StockSharp.Algo.Strategies;
using StockSharp.BusinessEntities;
using StockSharp.Messages;

namespace StockSharp.Samples.Strategies;

/// <summary>
/// Strategy that trades on mean reversion during periods of low volatility.
/// It identifies periods of low ATR and opens positions when price
/// deviates from its moving average, expecting a return to the mean.
/// </summary>
public class LowVolReversionStrategy : Strategy
{
	private readonly StrategyParam<int> _maPeriod;
	private readonly StrategyParam<int> _atrPeriod;
	private readonly StrategyParam<int> _atrLookbackPeriod;
	private readonly StrategyParam<decimal> _atrThresholdPercent;
	private readonly StrategyParam<DataType> _candleType;
	private readonly StrategyParam<int> _cooldownBars;

	private decimal _avgAtr;
	private int _lookbackCounter;
	private int _cooldown;

	/// <summary>
	/// Period for Moving Average calculation.
	/// </summary>
	public int MAPeriod
	{
		get => _maPeriod.Value;
		set => _maPeriod.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Period for ATR calculation.
	/// </summary>
	public int AtrPeriod
	{
		get => _atrPeriod.Value;
		set => _atrPeriod.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Lookback period for ATR average calculation.
	/// </summary>
	public int AtrLookbackPeriod
	{
		get => _atrLookbackPeriod.Value;
		set => _atrLookbackPeriod.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// ATR threshold as percentage of average ATR.
	/// </summary>
	public decimal AtrThresholdPercent
	{
		get => _atrThresholdPercent.Value;
		set => _atrThresholdPercent.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Type of candles used for strategy calculation.
	/// </summary>
	public DataType CandleType
	{
		get => _candleType.Value;
		set => _candleType.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Cooldown bars between trades.
	/// </summary>
	public int CooldownBars
	{
		get => _cooldownBars.Value;
		set => _cooldownBars.Value = value;
	}

	/// <summary>
	/// Initialize the Low Volatility Reversion strategy.
	/// </summary>
	public LowVolReversionStrategy()
	{
		_maPeriod = Param(nameof(MAPeriod), 20)
			.SetDisplay("MA Period", "Period for Moving Average calculation", "Indicators")
			.SetOptimize(10, 50, 5);

		_atrPeriod = Param(nameof(AtrPeriod), 14)
			.SetDisplay("ATR Period", "Period for ATR calculation", "Indicators")
			.SetOptimize(7, 21, 7);

		_atrLookbackPeriod = Param(nameof(AtrLookbackPeriod), 20)
			.SetDisplay("ATR Lookback", "Lookback period for ATR average calculation", "Indicators")
			.SetOptimize(10, 50, 10);

		_atrThresholdPercent = Param(nameof(AtrThresholdPercent), 80m)
			.SetDisplay("ATR Threshold %", "ATR threshold as percentage of average ATR", "Entry")
			.SetOptimize(30m, 90m, 10m);

		_candleType = Param(nameof(CandleType), TimeSpan.FromMinutes(1).TimeFrame())
			.SetDisplay("Candle Type", "Type of candles to use", "General");

		_cooldownBars = Param(nameof(CooldownBars), 500)
			.SetRange(1, 1000)
			.SetDisplay("Cooldown Bars", "Bars to wait between trades", "General");
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	public override IEnumerable<(Security sec, DataType dt)> GetWorkingSecurities()
	{
		return [(Security, CandleType)];
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	protected override void OnReseted()
	{
		base.OnReseted();
		_avgAtr = default;
		_lookbackCounter = default;
		_cooldown = default;
	}

	/// <inheritdoc />
	protected override void OnStarted2(DateTime time)
	{
		base.OnStarted2(time);

		_avgAtr = 0;
		_lookbackCounter = 0;
		_cooldown = 0;

		var sma = new SimpleMovingAverage { Length = MAPeriod };
		var atr = new AverageTrueRange { Length = AtrPeriod };

		var subscription = SubscribeCandles(CandleType);
		subscription
			.Bind(sma, atr, ProcessCandle)
			.Start();

		var area = CreateChartArea();
		if (area != null)
		{
			DrawCandles(area, subscription);
			DrawIndicator(area, sma);
			DrawOwnTrades(area);
		}
	}

	private void ProcessCandle(ICandleMessage candle, decimal smaValue, decimal atrValue)
	{
		if (candle.State != CandleStates.Finished)
			return;

		if (!IsFormedAndOnlineAndAllowTrading())
			return;

		// Gather ATR values for average calculation
		if (_lookbackCounter < AtrLookbackPeriod)
		{
			if (_lookbackCounter == 0)
				_avgAtr = atrValue;
			else
				_avgAtr = (_avgAtr * _lookbackCounter + atrValue) / (_lookbackCounter + 1);

			_lookbackCounter++;
			return;
		}
		else
		{
			_avgAtr = (_avgAtr * (AtrLookbackPeriod - 1) + atrValue) / AtrLookbackPeriod;
		}

		if (_cooldown > 0)
		{
			_cooldown--;
			return;
		}

		// Check if we're in a low volatility period
		decimal atrThreshold = _avgAtr * (AtrThresholdPercent / 100);
		bool isLowVolatility = atrValue < atrThreshold;

		if (Position == 0 && isLowVolatility)
		{
			if (candle.ClosePrice < smaValue)
			{
				BuyMarket();
				_cooldown = CooldownBars;
			}
			else if (candle.ClosePrice > smaValue)
			{
				SellMarket();
				_cooldown = CooldownBars;
			}
		}
		else if (Position > 0)
		{
			if (candle.ClosePrice > smaValue)
			{
				SellMarket();
				_cooldown = CooldownBars;
			}
		}
		else if (Position < 0)
		{
			if (candle.ClosePrice < smaValue)
			{
				BuyMarket();
				_cooldown = CooldownBars;
			}
		}
	}
}